Asymmetric effects and volatility transmission from metals markets to solar energy stocks: Evidence from DCC, ADCC, and quantile regression approach

Detrimental environmental repercussions have recently given rise to an interest in green investments. Although solar energy stocks are appealing assets for ethical investors, little is known about their dynamic correlations and linkages with metal (silicon, lithium, and rare earth) markets, particularly during economic events which is essential for hedging effectiveness and asset allocation. This study investigates the nexus between metal markets, oil price volatility (OVX), market sentiments (VIX), and solar energy markets using DCC, ADCC models, and the quantile regression approach. The results show both symmetric and asymmetric shock spillover between metals markets, VIX, OVX, and solar energy markets which are more prominent during COVID-19 pandemic, US-China trade frictions, and Russian invasion of Ukraine. For portfolio management, the hedging effectiveness of lithium stocks is highest, followed by silicon and rare earth metals. However, the hedge ratios are time-varying, and the variability is highest during US-China trade frictions. The quantile regression estimates reveal that lithium market is the most persistent determinant of solar energy stocks followed by silicon market even after segregating the periods into Paris Agreement and COVID-19 pandemic. Thus, lithium and silicon are driving markets of solar energy markets and can be a cause of omitted variable bias if stay unobserved. Nonetheless, there is little influence of VIX, rare earth metals, and OVX on solar energy stocks. Lastly, the estimations of threshold regression suggest that market sentiments change the association between metal markets and solar energy markets after the VIX reaches a certain threshold level. © 2023

Efectos económicos de la complementariedad comercial en la negociación de un tratado de libre comercio entre México y Corea del Sur *

México y Corea del Sur han avanzado en sus vínculos comerciales desde que iniciaron relaciones diplomáticas en 1962. Actualmente, los gobiernos de ambas economías se encuentran discutiendo la posibilidad de negociar un acuerdo de libre comercio. El objetivo de esta investigación es evaluar los efectos potenciales de dicho acuerdo. Para ello, se utilizan índices de intensidad comercial, ventajas comparativas reveladas, complementariedad y similitud comercial. Los resultados obtenidos muestran que los dos países han visto intensificar sus relaciones comerciales, lo que ha convertido a México en el principal socio comercial de Corea del Sur en América Latina, y ha dado lugar a una estructura comercial de complementariedad con ventajas para México en el comercio de combustibles minerales, lubricantes, maquinaria y equipo de transporte. También se obtuvo evidencia de la existencia de una asimetría en sus tarifas arancelarias que podría generar ventajas comerciales, sobre todo para México en el sector primario, en caso de lograr avanzar a la firma de un tratado de libre comercio.Alternate :Mexico and South Korea have progressed in their commercial affairs since they began diplomatic relations in 1962. Currently, the possibility of negotiating a free trade agreement between both economies is being raised. The objective of this research is to evaluate the potential effects of such a trade agreement for both countries. For this, indexes of commercial intensity, revealed comparative advantages, complementarity, and commercial similarity are used. The results show that these two countries have intensified their trade relations, turning Mexico into South Korea's main trading partner in Latin America and giving rise to a complementary trade structure with advantages for Mexico in the trade of mineral fuels, lubricants, machinery, and transport equipment. Also, an asymmetry was found in the tariff rates that could generate commercial advantages, especially for Mexico in the primary sector in case of the signing of a free trade agreement.

North America's Shifting Supply Chains: USMCA, COVID-19, and the U.S.-China Trade War

"8 The most important of the factors discussed in the article is the U.S.-China Trade War (discussed in Part III of this article) which, despite the conclusion of the "Phase One" Agreement on January 15, 2020, permits the United States to continue to impose tariffs from 7.5 percent to 25 percent on some $360 billion worth of tariffs on Chinese imports.9 Many observers, including this writer, believe that these penalty tariffs, imposed originally to pressure China to improve its protection of intellectual 4. property,10 will be in force for the foreseeable future and will exacerbate the already significant pressures on U.S. businesses to restructure their supply chains away from China toward the United States and its two USMCA partners. Given the unpredictability of both the Trump Administration and the Chinese leadership, it is more than a remote possibility that the tariff levels on U.S. imports on the remaining approximately $150 billion worth of Chinese products could be increased without much warning, as this was threatened by the Administration in the Fall of 2019 when the "Phase One" Agreement was under negotiation.11 Thus, in many respects, North America is expected to become the most attractive option for sourcing many parts and components and for supply chain management more broadly, even if the logistics and other complexities of more extensive decoupling from Chinese sources requires an extended period (three to five years) for many manufacturers of complex products. The dislocations will not be limited to U.S. importers because American firms, like chip producers Qualcomm and Intel, as well as Boeing (who count China as one of their most significant markets),13 are likely to lose partial access to that market either because of export controls or as retaliation for U.S. tariffs on Chinese exports to the United States. Initial concerns arose some years ago, well before the coronavirus became a worldwide catastrophe and before the United States and other governments placed blame on China for concealing the seriousness of the outbreak in China in a manner that has made it difficult for other countries, including the United States, to react promptly and effectively to the threats to the health of their own citizens and their economies.14 The pandemic has further reinforced the determination of President Trump and his key advisers (and many on both sides of the aisle in Congress) to greatly reduce or eliminate the supply chain links between U.S. manufacturers and China.15 This monumental change would be accomplished through "reshoring" production either to the United States proper (as the Administration would seemingly prefer) or, more likely in the case of labor-intensive products, "nearshoring" production to Mexico.16 For some products, final assembly and production of parts and components would be split between the United States and Mexico or Canada.

Hungary in the Global Pharmaceutical Market: Cooperation Trends with Russia

The pharmaceutical industry is a strategically important area of the global economy. It is one of the most innovative and dynamically developing sectors. In addition, this industry can be considered highly profitable, its role has especially increased due to the Covid-19 pandemic. The crisis has affected all sectors of the economy, with the pharmaceutical industry being one of the least affected. In 2020, global exports of pharmaceuticals increased by 9.5% compared to 2019, reaching 704 billion USD in 2020. This publication discusses the position of Hungary in the global pharmaceutical market with the focus on the trade relations with Russia. For the Hungarian economy, the pharmaceutical industry is one of the traditional and most innovative sectors. Thus, Hungary is an attractive country for the development and expansion of Russia's trade relations in the global pharmaceutical market. © 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.

Systemic Changes in the Politicization of the International Trade Relations and the Decline of the Multilateral Trading System

This Article contributes to the discussion about the development of international trade regulation of state interventionism by situating the tensions that exist about the future design of subsidies and state enterprises treaty regulation in the broader context of current systemic challenges to the multilateral trading system. While recent studies have explored the issues of subsidies and state-owned enterprises (SOEs) as one of the most significant in impact among the contemporary challenges to the WTO, there is certainly scope to discuss further such a problem from the broader point of view of the crisis of the multilateral trading system, its systemic challenges and the concomitant increasing politicization of international trade relations. To this end, this Article analyzes the interactions between the lasting decline of the WTO, growing political interferences with international trade flows and the prospects of reforming multilateral trade rules to address its systemic challenges and manage/mitigate newly central problems of the 21st century such as the Covid-19 Pandemic, climate change and the greening of economic production and international trade. The Article argues that existing WTO rules are not adequate to address these challenges and problems. It concludes that, like in the GATT era, it is only the spirit of pragmatism that may provide chances to find alternatives to growing frustration with negotiating inaction and, hence, to reform the system. However, the question remains whether it is possible to find an approach to imagine, remodel and craft multilateral rules that are sensitive to different economic, political, and social choices and able to rebalance the position of all members, large and small, rich and poor.

Evolution Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Global Dairy Trade

There are imbalances and uncertainties in the global supply and demand of dairy products, owing to the adverse influence of overall economic changes, dairy prices, agricultural politics, the COVID-19 pandemic, and severe climate. This paper aims to explore the evolving characteristics and influencing factors of the global dairy trade pattern and make recommendations for the sustainable development of the global dairy trade. This paper studies the evolutionary characteristics of the global dairy trade pattern from the perspective of the overall structure, individual characteristics, and core–periphery structure through complex network analysis (CNA), using the countries involved in dairy trade from 2000 to 2020. Furthermore, this study explores the influencing factors of the dairy trade network using a quadratic allocation procedure (QAP). The results indicate that the global dairy trade network has been expanding, with prominent scale-free features and small-world characteristics. Individual countries display obvious heterogeneity, whereas the core import regions of the dairy shift from Europe, East Asia, and America to North America, the Middle East, and East Asia. Contrary to this, there is no significant change in the core export regions. Consequently, the entire dairy trade network represents a clear core–periphery structure. Moreover, the income per capita gaps, geographic distance gaps, and common language always affect the trade value and dairy trade relations across the countries. Meanwhile, economic level gaps and regional trade agreements have become increasingly significant. Thus, the dairy trade may not follow the "border effect”. Lastly, this paper also extends recommendations for the sustainable development of the dairy trade. © 2023 by the authors.

How the COVID-19 Pandemic Is Reshaping the Trade Landscape and What to Do About It

The COVID-19 pandemic carries heavy threats, and preserving stable and coordinated international trade relations will be essential to avoid catastrophic disorders or conflicts.

The impacts of lockdown policies on international trade in the Philippines

The Philippines was among the most infected countries in East Asia at the onset of the COVID-19 outbreak. This study analyzes how international trade on various margins was affected by the country's own lockdown policies and those of trading partners. Using a monthly series of product- by-country data for the period from January 2019 to December 2020 and an event study design, the paper shows that domestic lockdown measures did not affect international trade but external lockdowns affected both ex- ports and imports. The introduction of lockdown measures by trading partners affected imports more than exports, leading to 7 and 56 percent monthly average drops in export and import values, respectively. Restrictions on internal movements and international travel controls in partner countries were responsible for the drop in exports. The slump in imports was because of workplace closure, stayat- home requirements, restrictions on internal movement, and international travel controls by trading partners of the Philip- pines. Intermediate goods were the key driver of the drop in imports following foreign lockdowns, reflecting supply disruptions in backward global value chain participation. At the same time, exports of intermediate goods were more resilient to the lockdown policies. Finally, both exports and imports were more affected at the extensive margin than the intensive margin, as lockdown measures hindered interactions among people, in turn reducing the potential of businesses to create new relationships and launch new products in foreign markets. Overall, diversified and geographically dispersed suppliers can help countries adjust better to future disruptions.

LATIN AMERICA AND RUSSIA AT THE WORLD FOOD MARKET*

The global economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic has hardly affected the interests of food producing and exporting companies. Moreover, in the 2020-2021 “covid” years, their sales and incomes increased significantly, which was in stark contrast to the situation in many other sectors of the global economy that experienced a drop in production and exports. Many beneficiaries of the boom in international food markets included a number of agricultural enterprises (so-called agricultural holdings) of Latin America and the Russian Federation. This is due to the fact that, for a number of reasons, that the world food prices have gone up sharply and are now close to a historic high. This was most clearly manifested in the markets of grains and oilseeds, as well as meat and meat products, where the positions of Latin American and Russian business structures are particularly strong. The current situation on the world food market not only favors the further growth of companies producing agricultural products in Latin America and Russia, but also makes changes in the context of trade and economic Russian-Latin American relations. If relatively recently Russia almost exclusively acted as an importer of food, including from Latin America, now domestic agricultural holdings are developing their foreign markets, including the Latin American region, the exports of their products are increasing, and these holdings are resolutely entering into competition with companies from other countries. © 2022. All Rights Reserved.

DEVELOPMENT OF INFORMATION AND CONSULTING SERVICES IN THE SYSTEM OF INFORMATION RELATIONS IN THE AGRICULTURAL INDUSTRY OF THE KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

Information relations in agricultural sector of the Kyrgyz Republic (KR) needs further development based on the digitalization processes taking place in the society. Spread of COVID-19 pandemic introduced a number of economic adjustments to the country's digital interactions, which significantly influenced the development of information and consulting services in the industry. Cooperation of the Kyrgyz Republic with the states of the Eurasian Economic Union presupposes close interaction on issues of regulation of the common agricultural market and development of international trade in the field of agriculture, which also affects digitalization of the country's economy. The paper presents the results of methodological study on development of information and consulting services in the agricultural sector, analysis of organizational structure of the country's agriculture according to categories of farms, and entities requiring these services have been determined. Recommendations are proposed for digitalization of the industry, taking into account development of information and consulting services, based on the current state of agricultural production, as son as the main consumers of information services turn to be peasant (farmer) households as the main producers of agricultural products. Building a system of information and consulting services will contribute to development of its own market for agricultural products, processing information from agricultural producers and consumers of agricultural products, creating profitable trade relations and marketing of agricultural products.

Statesmanship for Political Economy in the National Interest

[...]Americans have conflicting convictions about foreign affairs strategy and economic policy at this time of rising danger to our safety and independence. [...]I will contest the notion that economic nationalism is a botched bygone policy by tracing America's strategy of industrial development. [...]I will argue that learning this history should liberate our leaders to formulate economic strategy in the national interest to rebuild American power, which our neglect and naivete dissipated for three decades. [...]the agenda before American statesmen of the next thirty years is to apply this principle to a grand strategy of rebuilding our power to secure our peace.

Artificial Neural Networks in Export and Import Forecasting: An Analysis of Opportunities

The paper concerns the issue of forecasting trends in trade relations between Malaysia and Ukraine using artificial neural networks. The current state of trade relations between the countries in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic has been analyzed. Considering the advantages and disadvantages of the types of neural networks built into the software product STATISTICA 10, MLP network has been chosen to build a predictive model of imports and exports of goods. The forecast values for the volumes of exports and imports of goods for the period from January 2021 to December 2022 have been calculated. Comparing the results, the researchers concluded that the artificial neural network is the most successful model for forecasting imports and exports. Suggestions for effective evaluation and forecasting of international trade indicators using the theory of time series and neural network technologies are given and the directions of further scientific research arising from this paper are formed. © 2021 IEEE.